Prediction

I believe that Joby/RTP will be worth $30-50 per share by January 1, 2023.

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CEO (JoeBen Bevirt)

Mr. JoeBen Bevirt was the creator and CEO of the Joby tripod (you know that little tripod you see all the YouTubers using with the ball legs that twist so you can hook it on things and add attachments). JoeBen thought of the idea for a eVTOL while walking up the mountains to his home in Santa Cruz. (I've walked up those mountains I can attest).

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The Bull Thesis

Total addressable market ("TAM") Opportunity - In 2018, a Morgan Stanley market review estimates the Urban Air Mobility ("UAM") market could be worth slightly under $1.5 trillion dollars by 2040. In 2018 a study by NASA/Booz-Allen and Hamilton 

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Powerful Partnerships - Joby is partnered with a lot of big names Uber, Toyota, Intel, Baillie Gifford, Jet Blue, and Abdul Latif Jameel. 

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Uber Elevate Deal - In late 2020, Uber decided to invest $75 million in Joby as part of a broader deal to acquire Uber Elevate and expand the two company's partnerships. Joby and Uber have agreed to integrate their respective services into each other's apps therefore, Joby will be offered as an option on the Uber app from day 1 of commercial eligibility for seamless  travel from location to helipad to helipad to location.​

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Joby plans to begin commercial operation on the Uber app by 2023.

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Cost Compared to Helicopter Flight - Joby is attempting to make travel by air cost approximately the same as taking an UberX ride eventually. When Joby is initially offered on the Uber app it will probably be significantly more expensive.

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Speed Compared to Ground Travel - Because travel by air is not constricted by roads it is much faster than travel by ground.

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Quiet - This is reason enough to buy Joby. The company reports their aircraft is 100 times quieter than a helicopter during takeoff and landing with a near-silent flyover. Nobody likes loud helicopter noises and a big part of the reason why commercial air-flight isn't already viable is because modern helicopters decibel output does not allow them to operate commercially in 

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Approved for Airworthiness by the U.S. Military - Joby is the only full electric aircraft that is approved for airworthiness by the U.S. military. Currently, Joby is making test flights on military airbases 

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Good for Global Warming - Joby is a fully electric aircraft therefore it produces 0 carbon emissions. 

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FAA Certification (Progress) - Joby began discussions for certification with the Federal Aviation Administration (the "FAA")in 2015. In 2018, Joby applied for type certification.

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The Bear Thesis

Competition - 

Regulatory - Even after FAA certification is completed Joby still faces significant regulatory challenges that come with operating commercial aircraft of this size at lower altitudes within city limits. Thoughts of 9/11 come front of mind.

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Weather - Weather is always a concern when traveling. Sometimes UBER even suspends rides if the rain gets really bad. So, while this is a comment I have received from the bears it is not a major concern of mine.

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Air Traffic - Again, the same could be said with air traffic concerns. Traffic on land has also, always been an issue. Joby hopes to help ease traffic concerns by flying you to your destination at a top speed of 200 mph. Since eVTOLS are virtually silent flying overhead they can fly much lower in residential neighborhoods. eVTOLS flying different speeds in different directions would fly at different heights.

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Safety and Kobe (yes, Kobe) -  On January 26, 2020 Kobe Bryant, the pilot (Ara Zobayan) and Kobe's 13-year-old daughter (Gianna Bryant) I'm assuming her friend, (Alyssa Altobelli) who was 14-years-old and her parents (John and Keri Altobelli) died in a tragic helicopter crash on his way to a youth basketball game. Air-flight safety is always a concern, as is safety while traveling on the ground. Additionally, I think it is important to note that the helicopter that was responsible for the death of Kobe Bryant, his friends, and family was a Sikorsky S-76B (which runs on a gas turbine engine).

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The condensed version, eVTOLs are still fairly new and testing is ongoing, but so far, there is no evidence that Joby aircraft are any less safe than traditional helicopters. In fact, I believe that (in time) electrification will provide safety features that traditional helicopters cannot.